With such a crazy season of college basketball, picking this year's champion is a total and utter crapshoot. As weak as the favorites are, the lower-seeded teams are even weaker. I can't fathom picking a team lower than a four-seed to reach the Final Four, even though I'm sure someone will shock us all. You can easily take a stab in the dark on sheer gut, but there is no way — without heaps of hesitation — that anyone can make a surefire decision. With that being said, here it is:
As you can see, I aimed for a few upsets in the first two rounds myself ... although I lack overwhelming confidence. Usually I am pretty solid in my upset picks (I took #15 Lehigh over #2 Duke last year), but this year was a struggle. I hate picking the same as the so-called 'experts', but I think Minnesota can probably beat UCLA. One of my two biggest upsets is Ole Miss making a run to the Sweet Sixteen ... I think Marshall Henderson has the ability to go off against heavily favored Wisconson — and of course there's always going to be one surprise round-of-sixteen team. In my biggest shocker, I have Davidson upsetting three-seed Marquette. I have just not been impressed by Marquette when I've seen them play. I think that they are a middle-of-the-pack team in a conference (the Big East) that is always overrated heading into tournament season. It's worth a shot, right? My other underdogs I have winning? Oregon, Cincinnati, Belmont, South Dakota State (yes, South Dakota State), California, and Colorado. My theory: there are probably going to be more upsets than in previous years — given the state of parity in college basketball — but I'm not going to go overboard here. The top seeds are still head-over-heels better than the rest.
I have St. Louis beating Louisville for a spot in the Elite Eight, as well as Butler upsetting Miami. The former pick is due to the Billikens' depth and the overhype of Louisville. The latter because I just refuse to not trust Butler in the NCAA Tournament anymore ... and I think that the hype and pressure will get to Miami at some point.
My hardest pick, by far, was Kansas over Florida. I literally went back and forth on it multiple times. KU is really talented, but so is UF. I think the Gators could easily pull off the slight upset, but they have been inconsistent this year in a very weak SEC. Throw in the fact that they have become the hot Final Four pick of many analysts over the past few days, and I'm a little too scared to pull the trigger. I will be punching myself if I'm wrong.
So, in the end, I have three #1 seeds reaching the Final Four. You can call it whatever you want, but I just think that Indiana, Gonzaga, Duke, and Kansas are too strong. You'll also notice I picked teams with dominant players in the paint — a valuable commodity this year. I think, in the semifinals, Coach K shines and manages to sneak by Gonzaga. Indiana battles the Jayhawks for a tough win. And my national champion .... Indiana University. I just feel — in my gut — that this is the year the Hoosiers get back on top. And in the end, what else can we go with if not our gut instinct?
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